Monday, 31 March 2014
Is Crimea gone? Annexation no longer the focus of Ukraine crisis
John Kerry talks Ukraine with Russia
In diplomacy, like in sales, success often depends on making your adversaries believe they proposed the result you wanted.
By that measure, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have closed the sale on annexing Crimea from Ukraine.
On Monday, Russian Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited the region that Moscow now claims over
international protests, while Russia also said it was withdrawing a
battalion of infantry troops from the tens of thousands deployed near
the border with eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, diplomatic
efforts focus on defusing the immediate threat of armed conflict and
setting up a negotiating process, rather than necessarily reversing the
Crimean annexation.
Here are some questions and answers on how we got here and what to expect:
What's the story?
The Ukraine crisis has
its roots in the breakup of the Soviet Union more than two decades ago. A
country of deep ethnic and cultural divisions, it comprises a more
ethnic Russian population in the East and a more ethnic Ukrainian
population in the West, including Kiev, the capital.
Months of increasingly
violent political protests in Kiev over the government's reluctance to
expanded relations with the European Union culminated in a February 21
agreement that called for constitutional changes and new elections.
What's the latest?
As tension climbed,
Putin called President Barack Obama last Friday and the two leaders
agreed that their top diplomats would try to find an opening for
negotiations on resolving the crisis.
In four hours of talks
on Sunday in Paris, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov focused on easing the border tension and working
out a formula for a negotiating process that includes the Ukraine
government.
Afterward, Kerry told
reporters that both governments agreed on the need for a diplomatic
solution, and that the goal for now was de-escalating the crisis to
allow for further talks.
However, he never
directly mentioned Crimea or its annexation and he didn't repeat an
earlier U.S. demand that Russian troops leave Crimea.
"Both sides made
suggestions on ways to de-escalate the security and political situation
in and around Ukraine," Kerry said. "We also agreed to work with the
Ukrainian government and the people to implement the steps that they are
taking to assure the following priorities: the rights of national
minorities, language rights, demobilization and disarmament of the
regular forces and provocateurs, an inclusive constitutional reform
process, and free and fair elections monitored by the international
community."
His bottom line? "No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine."
Meanwhile, Monday's
movement of Russian troops -- whether a real withdrawal or symbolic
shift --signaled Moscow's acceptance that the Kerry-Lavrov talks yielded
some progress.
"If reports that Russia
is removing some troops from the border region are accurate, it would be
a welcome preliminary step," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki
said Monday.what does it all mean?
Two weeks ago, Ukrainian
President Oleksandr Turchynov declared that his country was willing to
hold talks with Russia, "but we will never accept the annexing of our
territory."
While Kerry alluded to
the Crimea annexation on Sunday, calling Russia's "actions" illegal and
illegitimate, he also noted that "Russia obviously has long ties and
serious interests" in Ukraine.
In tense, defiant Ukraine border region, prayers are for peace -- unless peace fails
In Washington,
Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California made a similar point
earlier Sunday on CNN, saying that Crimea is "dominantly Russian."
She sounded resolved
that the peninsula with a majority ethnic Russian population now had
returned to Moscow's provenance, as Putin wanted all along.
"A referendum was
passed. That, I think, has been done," said Feinstein, who chairs the
Senate Intelligence Committee. "But Ukraine is a different subject."
Her acknowledgment
clashes with Obama and the United Nations, who call the military backed
annexation of Crimea a violation of international law and dismiss the
Crimean secession referendum as a sham.
Obama has threatened
further sanctions targeting vital sectors of Russia's economy such as
financial services, energy, mining, defense and engineering.
However, it remains
unclear if European powers such as Germany and Britain would join in
such an escalation because of their stronger economic links with Russia.
What now?
More talks and diplomatic posturing,
The Russian force shift
Monday involved several hundred troops at the most, which would be only a
fraction of the 40,000 or more estimated to be near the Ukrainian
border for what Moscow calls exercises.
That means the next
steps occur under the shadow of the Russian forces that U.S. military
officials say could launch an incursion on short notice.
Obama's trump card is
the possible increased sanctions targeting strategic sectors of the
already struggling Russian economy as Moscow assumes greater costs
because of the Crimea annexation.
Medvedev said Monday
Crimean state salaries and pensions should be raised to Russian levels,
as should the pay for military personnel, while compulsory social
insurance would be introduced to the region next year.
He also said Moscow
would make Crimea a special economic zone and review water supply
projects for the region that now gets 90% of its water, 80% of its
electricity and roughly 65% of its gas from Ukraine.
A variety of outcomes
remain possible, ranging from further Russian military incursions in
other ethnic-Russian strongholds in the region to a negotiated political
agreement in which Ukraine adopts a new constitution and holds new
elections -- almost certainly minus Crimea.
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